Recently, the race for the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election has been cooling down when it would normally heat up. Early in the race, it always seemed that the frontrunner was former president Donald Trump. However, it now seems that Donald Trump has
pulled away and will be the clear choice for the nomination. Early in the race it seemed that Trump was leading with a chance for a possible upset from the Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis. However, due to early mismanagement from the DeSantis campaign it seemed that his threat to Trump seemed less serious. One notable example of DeSantis’s early campaign mismanagement was when the DeSantis campaign hired a large staff, but in order to conserve resources 40 percent of the staffers were fired. As a result, candidates like former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy saw a surge in support.
The rise of these newcomer candidates is a major example of growing rift between two factions in the Republican Party. Candidates such as Vivek Ramaswamy are supporters of a smaller government and a non interventionist foreign policy. Meanwhile, other candidates like Nikki Haley are in support of an aggressive hawkish foreign policy. Along with this, candidates have diverging views on decreasing the size of the government, especially the bureaucracy. As the split between establishment Republicans and the new conservative movement grows, many Republicans have begun to worry about the party’s future. However, the frontrunner, Donald Trump seems to be the perfect combination of both of the factions, and the voters have shown that fact.
As the first event of the primaries occurred, the Iowa Caucus, it began to seem like Nikki Haley had a legitimate chance to upset Trump. However, Trump ended up winning by 30 points, a record for a non-incumbent in the caucus. Haley did not even gain second place, losing to DeSantis by over two points. Due to the extraordinary margin of victory, candidates like DeSantis and Ramaswamy dropped out after Iowa and endorsed Trump for the nomination.
In New Hampshire, the second contest of the nomination process, Nikki Haley was in a must win situation. Haley, who generally appeals to more moderate voters, needed to get a strong victory in New Hampshire as it has a generally moderate electorate that includes the ability for registered independents to vote in the Republican primary. Despite this, Trump still ended up winning by 11 points. This loss seemed like the end of Haley’s attempt to stop Trump’s nomination. However, Haley stayed in the race despite being down over 26 points nationally among Republicans according to a Monmouth University poll.
Despite Trump’s large lead and likely nomination, many Republicans are worried about his electability. Throughout his political career, Trump has been known for his often wild and offensive comments. Whether towards ordinary people, rival politicians or world leaders, many people think that Trump is not fit to be president because of these. Along with this, Trump is facing various legal charges, mostly involving his involvement in the storming of the capitol building on January 6th. All of these factors lead to a growing group of Americans that no matter how bad of a job they may think Joe Biden is, simply refuse to vote for Trump.
Although Haley still remains in the race, many Republicans have accepted and endorsed Trump as the nominee. The Republican National Convention even made a proposal to officially make Trump the nominee before the conclusion of the primary season due to his large lead, however he declined as he wanted to properly beat Haley. With the party largely rallying around Trump, the focus now rests on defeating Joe Biden in the general election in November.
