Decades ago, Venezuela was a prosperous democracy and the United States’ most reliable oil supplier in the Western Hemisphere. Today, that economic partnership has transformed into a volatile, militarized conflict featuring lethal anti-narcotics strikes and extensive sanctions imposed by the U.S. in an aggressive push to break up the regime’s alleged drug trafficking networks and corruption. To understand the roots of the present crisis, it is important to follow the path from close allies to rivals.
The problems between the the U.S. and Venezuela began when socialist leader shortly after Hugo Chavez took control of the Presidency in 1999. Chavez had led a clandestine group, the “Bolivarian Revolutionary Movement-200,” since the 1980s and now he was in charge of the nation. The people of Venezuela began to democratically yield more power to him until eventually he weakened checks and balances and had enough power to be a dictator.
Since the 2010s, Venezuela’s economy has seen its steepest downfall due to a culmination of economic and political factors. The nation’s GDP dropped by more than 70% between 2014 and 2020, and, as of now, at least 80% of citizens are stuck below the poverty line. A major reason for Venezuela’s recent hardships is the global drop in oil prices from a supply glut in 2014, shortly after President Nicolás Maduro succeeded Hugo Chávez, which, combined with an absence of alternate income streams, makes it difficult for the country to recover financially.
During the years of economic hardships beyond 2013 amplified by the Maduro regime, Maduro took extra steps to explicitly sustain his power as president and is even expected to surpass Chávez’s term length. His means to fraudulently maintain his position has been condemned internationally, especially after challenger Edmundo González Urrutia, who ran as a proxy for the banned but widely popular opposition leader María Corina Machado, secured an estimated 67% of the vote in 2024 according to opposition records.
Amidst Maduro’s mismanagement, Machado provoked widespread street protests against the government’s ruling, which induced extrajudicial crackdowns including censorship, arrests and disappearances. Migration rates have also increased significantly with roughly 7 million Venezuelans fleeing since 2014. A humanitarian crisis evolved as well following Maduro’s refusal to concede power.
The U.S, under President Donald Trump has declared that Maduro’s Venezuela has been engaging in narcoterrorism under the “War on Drugs” and “War on Terror”, and the U.S. has began using military force. The U.S. does not recognize Maduro’s rule and accepts the opposing party. For that reason, the U.S. has engaged in the highest level of military presence in the Caribbean that has fostered at least 21 targeted strikes on vessels. In mid-November, “Operation Southern Spear” was put into action after the U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced a campaign featuring the escalation of airstrikes and other autonomous systems on vessels of alleged narcoterrorism groups. However, some analysts assert that President Trump ordered these strikes solely for the purpose of intimidation of Maduro. Shortly after the enactment of the military campaign, Trump advised for the Venezuelan airspaces to be considered closed due to rising military tensions.
As of now, the conflict of the U.S. and Venezuela could be defined as an unsettled diplomatic impasse where each action holds significant power over the other. The choices made by Washington and Caracas will determine not only the future of Venezuela’s sovereignty but also its economic and humanitarian balance in the next decade. The current priority of Venezuelan citizens is to survive the situation and hope for a better national government, with many considering emigrating elsewhere, if given the opportunity.